Japan GDP 1955 Present

Which country, the United States or Japan, have had the fastest GDP growth rate since the financial crisis? Due to Japan’s bad reputation as a stagnant, debt ridden, central bank dependent, demographic basket case the question appears superfluous. The answer seemed so obvious to us that we haven’t really bothered looking into it until one…

China GDP Decomposition

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over…

IMF Forecast for Japan since 1990

In the latest semi-annual Keynesian incantation spewed out by the world’s best pseudo-scientists, we learn that growth has been too slow for too long and that in itself is the cause of slow growth. First, they promote debt-funded consumption because spending – money supply/credit and velocity – is equivalent to nominal GDP growth, and as…

Sell it to China vs reality

The Chinese Jīngjì qíjī, wirtschaftswunder, keizai no kiseki, milagro económico or whatever you want to call is neither a miracle nor distinctly Chinese. A basket case like Argentine managed to pull off a similar feat, albeit with more volatility, over a 42 year timespan beginning in 1870. Germany did even better between 1945 and 1970….