RBL Stylized Example

Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th April after initial agreement to hold ‘upstream horses’ in February 2016. While it’s no doubt great fun getting back into the OPEC ‘masters of the oil universe’ routine, second time round, the stakes are rapidly rising in Doha given another supposed ‘freeze’ announcement would actually…

Brazil GDP vs Wheat Price

Get beyond endless Latin American headlines burning column inches and you come to far broader strategic conclusion: The seven ‘ugly Latino sisters’, namely Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are all deep political trouble from collapsed benchmark prices. It’s merely a case of who’s in more advanced states of political decay where left…

Ven Bs per USD

Things are turning increasingly ugly in Venezuela between President Maduro and the opposition MUD. The core political problem after December 2015 elections is the PSUV are now using the courts to neuter any opposition voices that formally hold a legislative majority to start holding the government to account. Right on cue, Mr. Maduro just railed…

On July 27th Prince Alwaleed bin Talal publicly opened Pandora’s Box, by releasing an open letter to the Saudi Minister of Petroleum, Mr Ali Al-Naimi, voicing his concerns about the longer-term implications on the Saudi economy of the US shale gas boom. The concerns are both real and relevant – in fact it is something…

On June 20th it finally happened – the WTI contract flipped from having been in contango for the best part of 5 years, to flipping into backwardation in not only the first month, but along the curve. Let’s start by taking a step back and understand why the forward curve behave the way they do,…