Ven Oil Prod

It took a while to play through, but our assessment that China would increasingly become the petro-state lender of last resort is starting to come good. The primary reason for that is producer states are rapidly running out of time to present full scale political implosion on the back of chronic economic pressures. For all the…

FX vs M2 under different scnearios

During the reign of the mighty petro-dollar standard, it was necessary for major oil exporters to recycle their dollar holdings back into the dollar-based financial system to maintain their self-imposed exchange rate pegs. US government bonds are the very centrepiece of this elaborate system and it is thus no surprise to see the dollar price…

Sheik vs Shale

The fact OPEC just agreed to agree on nothing in Vienna isn’t particularly surprising given Doha wounds are still festering from the last attempt at ‘petro-diplomacy’. But the engagement ultimately has to been knocked up as a partial success for Saudi Arabia, where it’s managed to put itself back at the centre of cartel politics…

Iran and Russia Oil Production

Another month, another OPEC meeting beckons for 2nd June. But unlike typical meetings on the Danube (let alone dust filled haze of Doha), the producer group might just have a new King in town. It comes in the form of Russia; the number one global producer that’s not even technically a member of the cartel….

Iran and Iraq Oil Production

As expected, PM Abadi was always going to come off worse in his last ditch attempt to try and regain some kind of political initiative by appointing a new look ‘technocratic’ government in Baghdad. But the ailing Prime Minister has managed to back himself into a particularly tight corner after being outplayed by Muqtada al…