Iran & Iraq

Iranian elections have supposedly put a very nice ‘moderate’ spin on Iranian politics in parliamentary ranks, and more importantly, Assembly of Experts composition. While it would be churlish to deny, it represents a significant step forward for President Rouhani’s agenda to 2017, albeit a number of vital caveats remain for how real any political shift…

Ven Bs per USD

Things are turning increasingly ugly in Venezuela between President Maduro and the opposition MUD. The core political problem after December 2015 elections is the PSUV are now using the courts to neuter any opposition voices that formally hold a legislative majority to start holding the government to account. Right on cue, Mr. Maduro just railed…

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When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament. By managing the USD/CNY exchange rate the Chinese factory worker was essentially funding excess consumption in the United States. One of the many perks enjoyed by global reserve issuer. The factory worker obviously…

10Yr and SWAP Spread

  SWAP spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. As can be seen from the chart below, treasury yields, here represented by the 10 year maturity, rose during QE policies programs contradicting the very raison d’être spouted by the central bankers. Interestingly enough we also…

Dollar Cycle

Over the decade long commodity boom made in China we have all been accustomed to the large and growing current account surpluses being recycled back into western financial security markets. Case in point, from 2000 to its peak in the fall of 2013 the Chinese added more than 2,000 per cent to their TSY holdings….